The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 69 percent chance this year’s El Niño will be the strongest on record since 1950, and it is already drying out farmland and pushing up temperatures on multiple continents.
Story Snapshot
- The New York Times’ “The Daily” podcast released an episode titled “El Niño Is Back. And Worse Than Ever.” on August 19, 2026.
- The Climate Prediction Center gives a 69 percent chance this El Niño becomes the strongest since 1950.
- NOAA first confirmed the El Niño had formed back in June, warning it would keep growing stronger.
- Reports already link the pattern to dry spells, crop failures and rising temperatures across several continents.
A Major Weather Pattern Returns
The New York Times devoted a full episode of its flagship podcast, “The Daily,” to El Niño on August 19, 2026. Reporter Chico Harlan, the paper’s global climate reporter, walked listeners through the pattern’s history and its “increasingly destructive fallout”. The episode description does not hedge: this year’s El Niño is “already on track to be, by far, the strongest and most severe on record.”
That claim rests on a specific number. The Climate Prediction Center puts the odds at 69 percent that this El Niño will surpass every event recorded since 1950. That is a forecast, not a final measurement, but it is a striking figure from the government’s own weather forecasters, and it explains why the pattern has drawn so much attention this summer.
How the Pattern Has Already Grown
El Niño did not appear overnight. NOAA confirmed back on June 11 that the pattern had formed in the tropical Pacific and would “likely intensify in the coming months”. Since then, New York Times climate coverage has tracked its growth, describing an event that formed early and moved faster than typical El Niño years, catching some forecasters off guard by midsummer.
By August, the effects were already visible far from the tropical Pacific where El Niño begins. The Times reported the event is “already strong and having big effects, nudging up global temperatures and causing dry spells and crop failures on multiple continents”. Those impacts stretch across farming regions and cities that depend on stable rainfall and predictable growing seasons.
Why This Matters Beyond the Weather
El Niño is a natural ocean-and-atmosphere cycle, but the Times has connected this year’s event to a bigger trend. One report described the pattern as “exacerbating the effects of climate change,” tying a recurring natural cycle to the steady rise in background global temperatures. That combination is why scientists watch El Niño years closely: they tend to push already-warm conditions even higher.
For ordinary Americans, a severe El Niño can mean higher grocery prices if crops fail overseas, disrupted supply chains, and stranger weather at home, from heavier storms to unexpected droughts. These are not abstract numbers on a forecast chart. They show up as grocery bills, insurance premiums, and farm losses that hit rural communities and working families whether they follow climate science or not.
The Limits of a Forecast
Even strong forecasts carry real uncertainty. Climate scientists note that seasonal outlooks like this one are built from ensembles of computer models, not a single guaranteed outcome. As one forecasting research group has put it, “the future is inherently uncertain, and ensemble forecasts from any single model provide an estimate of the uncertainty in what will happen”. The 69 percent figure is a strong signal, not a locked-in certainty, and the final scope of this El Niño will only be clear once it peaks and fades later this year.
Still, the direction of the data is consistent. Government forecasters confirmed the pattern in June, watched it strengthen through the summer, and now say it has a real shot at breaking a 76-year record. Whatever the final numbers show, the dry spells, crop losses, and rising temperatures already reported this summer are not waiting for a final verdict to affect people’s lives.
Sources:
youtube.com, nytimes.com, liveradious.com
