America’s Healthcare Workforce Crisis

Hospital hallway with empty gurney — Photo: hxdbzxy / Shutterstock

More than 700,000 health care jobs sit unfilled every month in America, and the country does not have enough workers to close that gap anytime soon.

Quick Take

Experts say the U.S. health care workforce shortage has moved from a future warning to a present-day emergency.
Federal projections show a shortage of over 140,000 full-time physicians by 2038, with primary care hit hardest.
Burnout, aging clinicians, student debt, and low pay for support staff are driving workers out of the field.
Rural and underserved areas face the worst gaps, leaving millions without easy access to a doctor.

A Shortage That Has Arrived, Not One That Is Coming

Michellene Davis, president and chief executive of National Medical Fellowships, wrote in TIME that the health care workforce emergency “experts have warned about for years is no longer approaching—it is here.” She points to a projected shortage of more than 700,000 health care professionals over the next decade, covering physicians, registered nurses, and licensed practical nurses. That number is not a guess pulled from thin air. It lines up with separate data from The Conference Board, which found more than 700,000 health care job openings monthly against just 306,000 unemployed workers available to fill them.

Federal researchers back up the scale of the problem. The Health Resources and Services Administration projected a shortage of 187,130 full-time physicians by 2037 in its 2024 report. A year later, the updated 2025 report put the number at 141,160 physicians by 2038, still a massive gap even after some improvement. Primary care took a direct hit too, with a projected shortfall of 70,610 full-time primary care workers, leaving about 92 million Americans living in areas without enough doctors nearby.

Why Fewer People Want the Job

This is not just a numbers problem. It is a people problem. Davis and other researchers point to burnout, an aging clinician workforce nearing retirement, heavy educational debt for new doctors and nurses, and reimbursement rates that do not match the cost of training or running a practice. The Niskanen Center describes a “profound workforce crisis” driven by demographic shifts, burnout, training bottlenecks, and low wages for support roles like home health aides and nursing assistants.

Consulting firm Mercer projected a nationwide shortfall of 100,000 health care workers by 2028, warning that demand for health professionals has outpaced supply since before the pandemic even hit. The federal government has felt this strain directly, too. A 2023 oversight review found that federal health programs, including the Bureau of Prisons, military treatment facilities, and Veterans Health Administration, all reported shortages of medical officers during the pandemic and in the years since.

The Numbers Shift, But the Trend Does Not

Different reports use different timelines and methods, so the exact figures move depending on the source. The Department of Health and Human Services’ Bureau of Health Workforce confirmed that its December 2025 projections still show an overall shortage of 141,160 physicians by 2038. The federal Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation has tracked these same pressures across physicians, nurses, direct care workers, behavioral health staff, and dental providers, describing a system stretched thin in nearly every direction.

The Government Accountability Office has pushed the Department of Health and Human Services to build a more coordinated, long-term planning approach, arguing that a well-trained and adequately sized workforce is essential to meeting the country’s health needs. That recommendation still stands as hospitals and clinics scramble to fill shifts today, not in some distant future.

What This Means for Patients

Davis has taken this message to television audiences directly, telling PBS that the shortage is being “exacerbated” across the board, not confined to one specialty or region. Her organization, National Medical Fellowships, has made the physician shortage and eroding trust in medicine a central focus of its public outreach this year. The American Hospital Association’s 2025 workforce scan echoes the same concern, noting that clinical staffing gaps loom especially large in primary care, maternal care, and long-term care settings, even as new workers enter the field.

For families in rural towns and aging suburbs alike, this shortage is not an abstract policy debate. It means longer waits for appointments, overworked nurses, and emergency rooms standing in for primary care doctors who simply are not there. Fixing it will require more than one law or one grant program. It demands sustained investment in training, fair pay, and support for the workers who keep the system running.